NTA Level 5 • Semester 1 • PST05101

Introduction to Quantification and Forecasting

Medicines and Medical Supplies Management • Source Session/Topic 5

Full source-text version: all educational wording from the extracted learning source is retained; only presenter/tutor metadata and web-layout noise are removed, while formatting is improved for readability.

Session 5: Introduction to Quantification and Forecasting

Total Session Time: 120 minutes

Prerequisites

• None

Learning Tasks

By the end of this session students are expected to be able to:

• Define terms quantification and forecasting as applied in medicines and

medical supplies

• List objectives of quantification

• Describe issues to consider in quantification

Resources Needed:

• Flip charts, marker pens, and masking tape

• Black/white board and chalk/whiteboard markers

SESSION OVERVIEW

SESSION CONTENTS

STEP 1: Presentation of Session Title and Learning Tasks (5 minutes)

READ or ASK students to read the learning tasks and clarify

ASK students if they have any questions before continuing.

STEP 2: Definitions of Quantification and Forecasting (10 minutes)

Quantification

• Is a process that includes estimating the quantities and the cost of

medicines and medical supplies as required to meet customer demand

and to fill the pipeline with adequate stock levels.

• The process takes into account service delivery capacity, supply

pipeline requirements, and resources available for procurement.

• Is the process used to determine how much of a products is required

for the purpose of procurement and the budget costs ie. Medicine

needs for the next procurement activity

• Is a critical supply chain activity that links information on

services and commodities from the facility

Forecasting

• It means estimating the quantity of products (e.g. medicines to be

dispensed and medical supplies to be used) to meet customer demand

for a future period of time. It is about projection of future needs,

beyond the next purchasing order

• Is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and

present data and most commonly by analysis of trends.

STEP 3: Objectives of Quantification (30 minutes)

|Activity: Buzzing (5minutes) |

| |

|ASK students to pair up and buzz on the following question for 3 |

|minutes |

| |

|What are the objectives of quantification? |

| |

|ALLOW few pairs to respond on the question and let other pairs add on |

|points not mentioned |

| |

|WRITE their response on the flip chart/board |

| |

|CLARIFY and SUMMARIZE by using the content below |

The following are the objectives of quantification:

• Provide evidence for medicines and medical supplies budget

• To be used as bench mark for monitoring and evaluation

• To achieve consistent availability of medicines

• To ensure adequate supplies for projected scale up

• To ensure minimal wastage

• To ensure minimal over stoking

• To attain Cost effectiveness (value for money)

• To conduct rational adjustment where funds are inadequate

• To easy management medicines and medicals supplies

• To address and meeting actual demand

• To satisfied clients as their needs are addressed

STEP 4: Issues to Consider in Quantification (60 minutes)

|Activity: Small Group Discussion ( 15 minutes) |

| |

|DIVIDE students into manageable groups |

| |

|ASK students to discuss in groups on the following question: |

| |

|What are the issues to consider in quantification? |

| |

|ALLOW students to discuss for 15 minutes |

| |

|ALLOW each groups to present |

| |

|CLARIFY and SUMMARIZE by using the contents below |

The following are issues to consider in quantification;

• Population which the health institution serves

• Disease patterns in that particular facility catchment

• Varying Monthly drug consumption

• Knowledge of quantity of each dosage form that is regularly consumed

• Delivery lead time may not be constant

• Time lag between placing orders and receiving the orders

• Changing Request indicator (re-order level)

• Quantity of drug product that serves as a signal for re-ordering

.After knowing the issues to consider in quantification, here are Steps

to follow in quantification;

• Prepare Action plan for quantification

• Decide use centralized or decentralized approach

• Decide use of manual or computerized system

• Estimate time required

• Develop the medicines and medical supplies list

• Fill the supply system

• Consider impact of lead time

• Adjust for losses and wastes, thefts, growth

• Estimate cost that is budget

• Adjusting and reconciling funds and quantities required

STEP 5: Key Points (5 minutes)

• Quantification is the process used to determine how much of a products

is required for the purpose of procurement and the budget costs ie.

Medicine needs for the next procurement activity

• Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on

past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends

• There are several objectives of quantification which include to achieve

consistent availability of medicines and medical supplies, adequate

supplies for projected scale up, minimal wastage, minimal over stoking

and having satisfied clients just to mention a few.

• There are important issues to consider in quantification (is forecasting)

such as Population which the health institution will serve, Disease

pattern, Seasonal variation in disease pattern, Varying Monthly drug

consumption, Knowledge of quantity of each dosage form that is regularly

consumed, Delivery lead time and Time lag between placing orders and

receiving the orders,

STEP 6: Evaluation (10 minutes)

• What is the meaning of quantification?

• What is the meaning of forecasting as applied in medicines and medical

supplies ?

• What are the objectives of quantification?

• What are the issues to consider in quantification?

References

MSH and WHO (2012) Managing Access to Medicines and Health Technology,

3rd Edition. Kumarian Press

World Health Organization (WHO), Regional Office for Africa

Brazzaville 2004, Management of Drugs at Health Centre Level Training

Manual.

United Republic of Tanzania Ministry of Health and Social Welfare,

Strategy for Development and Implementation of an Integrated Logistics

System for Essential Health Commodities: Government Printers, Dar es

Salaam

USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 1. 2011. Tanzania: 2020 Supply

Chain Modeling—Forecasting Demand from 2020–2024. Arlington, Va

← Previous Topic Next Topic →View all Medicines and Medical Supplies Management topics Open Complete Full Notes

PDF / OFFLINE NOTES

Unataka kutumiwa notes hizi kupitia WhatsApp?Kwa notes zilizopangiliwa vizuri kwa kusoma offline au PDF, bonyeza kitufe hapa chini. Ujumbe wenye Level, Semester, Module na Topic utaandaliwa moja kwa moja.TUMIWA NOTES WHATSAPP

WhatsApp: 255620339260