NTA Level 5 • Semester 1 • PST05101

Quantification Methods

Medicines and Medical Supplies Management • Source Session/Topic 6

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Session 6: Quantification Methods

Total Session Time: 120 minutes

Prerequisites

• None

Learning Tasks

By the end of this session students are expected to be able to:

• List the methods of quantification

• Explain the methods of quantification

Resources Needed:

• Flip charts, marker pens, and masking tape

• Black/white board and chalk/whiteboard markers

SESSION OVERVIEW

SESSION CONTENTS

STEP 1: Presentation of Session Title and Learning Tasks (5 minutes)

READ or ASK students to read the learning tasks and clarify

ASK students if they have any questions before continuing.

STEP 2: Methods of Quantification (10 minutes)

|Activity: Buzzing (5minutes) |

| |

|ASK students to pair up and buzz on the following question for 3 |

|minutes |

| |

|What are the methods of quantification? |

| |

|ALLOW few pairs to respond on the question and let other pairs add on |

|points not mentioned WRITE their response on the flip chart/board |

| |

|CLARIFY and SUMMARIZE by using the content below |

There are four (4) methods of quantification as listed below:

• Consumption quantification method

• Morbidity quantification method

• Adjusted consumption quantification method

• Service level projection of budget requirements method

STEP 3: Explanations on Methods of Quantification (80 minutes)

|Activity: Small Group Discussion ( 15 minutes) |

| |

|DIVIDE students into manageable groups |

| |

|ASK students to discuss in groups on the following question: |

| |

|What are the explanations on the methods of quantification? |

| |

|ALLOW students to discuss for 15 minutes |

| |

|ALLOW each groups to present |

| |

|CLARIFY and SUMMARIZE by using the contents below |

The following are the explanations on quantification methods;

The Consumption Method

• This method uses records of past consumption of individual medicines

(adjusted for stockouts and projected changes in medicine use) to project

future need

• In many instances, this is the most precise method for quantifying

pharmaceutical usage, provided the source data are complete, accurate,

and properly adjusted for stockout periods and anticipated changes in

demand and use.

• It does not normally address the appropriateness of past consumption

patterns, which may or may not correspond with public health priorities

and needs. Thus, irrational medicine use may be perpetuated by total

reliance on the consumption method. If stock outs have been widespread

for long periods, applying this method accurately may be impossible,

which is why capturing actual demand is the most accurate approach.

The Morbidity Method

• This method estimates the need for specific medicines based on the

expected number of attendances, the incidence of common diseases, and

standard treatment patterns for the diseases considered. It may be used

when a program is scaling up.

• This is the most complex and time-consuming method. In many countries,

assembling valid morbidity data on more than a defined set of diseases is

very difficult; therefore, some needs will be overlooked in the

quantification. Data on patient attendance are often incomplete and

inaccurate, and predicting what percentage of prescribers will actually

follow the standard treatment regimens used for quantification is

difficult.

• Despite these constraints, this method may remain the best alternative

for planning for procurement or for estimating budget needs in a supply

system or facility in which a limited range of health problems accounts

for virtually all medicine consumption, such as a small primary care

system; a special-purpose hospital; a new program with no previous

consumption history, such as HIV/AIDS programs rolling out antiretroviral

therapy (ART); or changes in standard treatment guidelines.

The Adjusted-consumption /Proxy Consumption Method

• This method uses data on disease incidence, medicine consumption,

demand, or use, and/ or pharmaceutical expenditures from a “standard”

supply system and extrapolates the consumption or use rates to the

target supply system, based on population coverage or service level to

be provided

• It is the method generally used if neither the consumption-based nor

the morbidity-based method is feasible. This method is most likely to

yield accurate projections when used to extrapolate from one set of

facilities to another set that serves the same type of population in

the same type of geographic and climatic environment.

• Still, this method may be the best alternative in the absence of

suitable data required for the consumption- or morbidity-based method.

• The proxy consumption method is also useful for cross-checking

projections made with other methods.

Service-Level Projection of Budget Requirements Method

• This method uses the average medicine cost per attendance or bed-day

in different types of health facilities in a standard system to

project medicine costs in similar types of facilities in the target

system This method does not estimate quantities of individual

medicines.

• It produces a rough estimate of financial needs for pharmaceutical

procurement and not the quantity of products. The method relies on two

assumptions:

o that the “standard” system (used for comparison) and the target

system are comparable in terms of patient attendance and bed-days

per type of facility, and

o that the patterns of medicine use are roughly the same in both

systems. Despite its limitations, this method can be useful in

predicting medicine costs in a new system or in a system in which

no data are readily available

STEP 4: Key Points (15 minutes)

• There are 4 types of quantification; which are Consumption

quantification method, Morbidity quantification Method, Adjusted

consumption quantification Method and Service level projection of

budget requirements quantification method

• Each of the methods has got its use but also advantages and

disadvantages and hence each method has to be used accordingly

STEP 5: Evaluation (5 minutes)

• What are the types of quantification methods?

• What explanations can you give on quantification methods?

References

MSH and WHO (2012) Managing Access to Medicines and Health Technology,

3rd Edition. Kumarian Press

World Health Organization (WHO), Regional Office for Africa

Brazzaville 2004, Management of Drugs at Health Centre Level Training

Manual.

United Republic of Tanzania Ministry of Health and Social Welfare,

Strategy for Development and Implementation of an Integrated Logistics

System for Essential Health Commodities: Government Printers, Dar es

Salaam

USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 1. 2011. Tanzania: 2020 Supply

Chain Modeling—Forecasting Demand from 2020–2024. Arlington, Va

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